Pahalgam Attack: India’s Suspension of Indus Waters Treaty and Its Impact on Pakistan

A day after a deadly terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, left 26 people - including tourists - dead, India on Wednesday announced the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan.

This move is part of a broader set of five punitive measures New Delhi has taken in the aftermath of the attack, signaling a sharp escalation in diplomatic tensions.

What does this mean going forward?
The Indus River system includes the main Indus River and key tributaries - the Ravi, Beas, Sutlej, Jhelum, and Chenab. While the Kabul River also feeds into the system, it does not pass through Indian territory.

The Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej are known as the Eastern rivers, while the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab are the Western rivers. The distribution of these waters is essential to both India and Pakistan, making any disruption highly consequential.

Pradeep Kumar Saxena, who held the position of India’s Indus Water Commissioner for more than six years ,told PTI," India, as an upper riparian country, has multiple options. This could be the first step towards the abrogation of the Treaty, if the Government so decides."

"Although there is no explicit provision in the Treaty for its abrogation, Article 62 of the Vienna Convention on Law of the Treaties provides sufficient room under which the treaty can be repudiated in view of the fundamental change of circumstances which has occurred with regard to those existing at the time of conclusion of the Treaty," he added.

What initiatives can India implement?
In a formal notice issued to Pakistan last year, India called for a “review and modification” of the treaty.

Saxena stated that India is under no binding obligation to comply with the limitations on "reservoir flushing" for the Kishanganga reservoir and other similar projects on the Western rivers in Jammu and Kashmir.

“The Indus Water Treaty currently prohibits it. Flushing can help India desilt its reservoir but then filling the entire reservoir could take days. Under the treaty, reservoir filling after the flushing has to be done in August -- peak monsoon period -- but with the pact in abeyance, it could be done anytime,” he told PTI.

Carrying out such an exercise during the sowing season in Pakistan could prove harmful, particularly since a significant portion of Punjab relies on the Indus River and its tributaries for irrigation.

Under the Indus Waters Treaty, there are specific design restrictions on constructing infrastructure like dams on the Indus and its tributaries. Pakistan has previously raised concerns over the designs of various projects. However, moving forward, addressing those concerns may no longer be required.

Historically, Pakistan has objected to nearly every major project, including Salal, Baglihar, Uri, Chutak, Nimoo Bazgo, Kishenganga, Pakal Dul, Miyar, Lower Kalnai, and Ratle.

Following the Pulwama terror attack in 2019, India approved the development of eight additional hydropower projects in Ladakh. These new projects may not be subject to the same objections. Additionally, operational rules related to reservoir filling and management, which were previously mandated under the treaty, are no longer binding.

With the treaty now in abeyance, India also has the option to stop sharing flood-related data with Pakistan, according to Saxena in a statement to PTI.

“This could also prove detrimental to Pakistan, especially during the monsoon when rivers swell. India will now have no restriction on storage on Western rivers, particularly the Jhelum, and India can take several flood control measures to mitigate floods in the Valley,” Saxena added.

The India-Pakistan border was established across the Indus Basin
At the time of Independence, the boundary between the newly formed nations of India and Pakistan was drawn through the Indus Basin, making India the upper riparian and Pakistan the lower riparian. As a result, two key irrigation works—one at Madhopur on the Ravi River and the other at Ferozepur on the Sutlej River—ended up on the Indian side. These facilities were crucial, as Punjab (in Pakistan) heavily relied on them for its canal irrigation supplies. This division led to a dispute between the two countries over the use of irrigation water from these existing infrastructure systems.

In light of current developments, the mandatory tours by Pakistani officials to India, as outlined in the treaty governing water sharing, may now be suspended.