Monsoon 2025 Forecast: Above-Normal Rain Likely Across South Asia; Heat to Intensify in Some Regions

New Delhi, April 30, 2025 — The 2025 Southwest Monsoon is expected to bring above-normal rainfall across most parts of South Asia, according to a joint regional forecast issued on Wednesday. The seasonal update, developed by nine national meteorological and hydrological services with international support, was presented at the 31st session of the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF)

in Pune, India.

While the rainfall forecast is optimistic for large parts of the subcontinent, certain regions in North, South, East, and Northeast India may witness normal or below-normal rainfall, requiring localized preparedness and planning.

Monsoon 2025 Forecast Rain Brings Relief, But Nights to Remain Warm

The June–September monsoon season is forecast to deliver above-average rainfall

, driven by favorable climatic indicators such as neutral ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) and neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions. These factors have historically supported robust monsoon activity.

However, night-time minimum temperatures are likely to stay above normal in most regions, particularly across central and southern South Asia. Daytime maximum temperatures

are expected to remain higher than normal in North, East, and Northeast India, while Central and Southern India may experience relatively milder daytime heat.

Key Global Climate Drivers: ENSO and IOD in Neutral Phase

The forecast highlights the role of global oceanic and atmospheric patterns in shaping the upcoming monsoon:

• ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation): Currently neutral, and expected to remain so during the monsoon. A neutral ENSO phase typically reduces volatility in monsoon performance.

• IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole): Also in a neutral phase, reducing the risk of monsoon suppression or excessive variability.

• Other influencing factors include Eurasian land heating, North Atlantic sea surface temperatures, and Arctic snow cover. Notably, snow cover during January–March 2025 was among the lowest in 59 years, a pattern that tends to correlate with stronger monsoon rainfall.

Implications for India: Agriculture, Water, and Economy

In India, where over 60% of agriculture is rain-fed, the monsoon’s performance is critical to rural livelihoods, food security, and economic stability.

If rainfall is above normal:

• Crop yields for water-intensive staples like rice, sugarcane, and cotton may rise

• Farm incomes are expected to improve

• Water reservoirs will replenish, aiding irrigation, hydropower, and drinking water supply

If certain areas receive less rainfall:

• Drought risk may increase

• Crop losses and economic stress in affected regions could follow

• Preemptive disaster and resource management will be essential

The monsoon forecast serves as a planning tool for farmers, state governments, irrigation boards, and disaster management agencies to optimize agricultural strategies, manage water resources, and prepare for contingencies

.

Conclusion: A Promising Outlook With Regional Caution

The early indicators point to a beneficial 2025 monsoon for most of South Asia, offering hope for agricultural productivity and climate resilience. However, the variability across subregions means that targeted risk management will be crucial to mitigate the impact of possible localized dry spells

.