Delhi election results: How accurate were exit polls this time

NEW DELHI: Exit polls have frequently missed the mark in recent elections. In the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, they overestimated the Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP) performance, while in the Haryana assembly election, they incorrectly projected a tilt towards Congress. Predictions also varied widely across states. However, in the Delhi assembly election, exit polls were notably accurate, closely aligning with the actual results.

On the counting day, the BJP secured 48 seats, while the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) won 22 seats displaying its worst performance since 2013. While most exit polls correctly predicted a BJP victory, their estimates for AAP varied significantly.

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Exit poll predictions vs actual results

Exit polls broadly captured BJP's lead, though many overestimated AAP's tally, reflecting the inconsistencies that have plagued past election predictions.

Based on the Delhi election results (BJP: 48, AAP: 22, Congress: 0), P-Marq emerged as the most accurate, predicting AAP at 26 and BJP at 44, with a deviation of just four seats for both parties. Poll Diary followed closely, precisely forecasting AAP’s 22 seats and coming within two seats for BJP, though it slightly overestimated Congress.

Axis My India also performed well, underestimating AAP by just two seats and missing BJP’s tally by the same margin, making it one of the more reliable projections for the BJP.

Chanakya Strategies and People’s Insight had a six-seat deviation for BJP and a five-seat deviation for AAP, making them relatively accurate but not the best. Similarly, JVC Poll showed a comparable margin of error.

Further down the accuracy rankings, MATRIZE significantly overestimated AAP’s strength (35 seats, 13 more than actual) while underestimating BJP’s performance (38 seats, 10 fewer than actual). DV Research followed a similar pattern, overestimating AAP by eight seats and underestimating BJP by the same number.

The Poll of Polls compilation had a four-seat error for AAP and a five-seat error for BJP, placing it in the middle of the accuracy rankings. Peoples Pulse-Codema was significantly off, underestimating AAP by seven seats and overestimating BJP by eight seats. However, WEPRESIDE was the least accurate of all, overestimating AAP by a massive 27 seats while underestimating BJP by the same margin, making it the most incorrect prediction overall.

Also read: Delhi election results: How the OGs of AAP became Kejriwal’s biggest critics over the decade

Exit polls: A mixed track record for AAP

AAP leaders dismissed the projections before the results were announced, citing historical inaccuracies. Party spokesperson Reena Gupta pointed out that in 2013, 2015, and 2020, exit polls had consistently underestimated AAP’s performance. Sanjay Singh went further, mockingly calling them "surveys by massage and spa companies."

However, this time, exit polls were closer to reality, with BJP securing more seats than projected and AAP underperforming.

• 2013: Exit polls predicted 17 seats for AAP; the party won 28.
• 2015: Most polls forecast 45 seats for AAP; the party swept 67 seats.
• 2020: The average prediction for AAP was 52, but it secured 62.

Exit polls also stumbled in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The poll of polls had forecast 369 seats for the BJP-led NDA, but the actual tally was significantly lower. Similarly, in Maharashtra, agencies projected a clear Mahayuti (BJP-Shiv Sena-Ajit Pawar NCP) victory, though the seat range varied widely.

Exit polls vs actual results: A history of misfires

Exit polls since 2004 have underperformed and were inaccurate at some of the important elections also including 2004 and 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Some notable instances include:

Also read: Winners and Losers of Delhi assembly election 2025

• Lok Sabha Elections 2024:Exit polls had predicted a BJP-led NDA landslide, with some even forecasting '400-paar.' However, the actual results fell significantly short. The NDA secured 293 seats, with the BJP winning 240—63 fewer than its 2019 tally of 303, failing to secure a majority on its own. Meanwhile, the Congress-led INDIA bloc won 235 seats, further highlighting the inaccuracy of the exit polls.
• 2024 Haryana assembly elections: Exit polls for Haryana's 2024 assembly elections indicated a dominant showing for Congress, with predictions ranging from 44 to 64 seats, while the BJP is expected to secure 15-32 seats. However, BJP managed to secure 48 seats, which totally flipped the coin for both parties.
• 2023 Chhattisgarh assembly Elections: Most exit polls predicted an easy Congress win, but the BJP secured over 50 seats, defying expectations.
• 2017 Uttar Pradesh assembly Elections: Exit polls forecast a hung assembly, but BJP won a staggering 325 seats.
• 2015 Bihar assembly Elections: Polls suggested a tight race, yet the RJD-JDU-Congress alliance won decisively.
• 2015 Delhi assembly Elections: The 2015 Delhi assembly elections also demonstrated the unreliability of exit polls. While the exit polls did predict a win for the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), they did not anticipate the scale of AAP’s victory. The party won 67 out of 70 seats, a landslide that no exit poll had forecasted.
• 2014 Lok Sabha Elections: Projections placed NDA below a majority, but BJP alone secured 282 seats.
• 2004 Lok Sabha Elections: Exit polls predicted an NDA majority, but Congress and its allies won instead. Exit polls predicted a comfortable majority for the NDA, forecasting between 240 to 275 seats. However, the actual results surprised many, with the NDA securing only 187 seats. Contrary to predictions, Congress and its allies won 216 seats.